Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
Latest Premier League Relegation Betting Tips (12th December 2014)
- West Brom to be relegated at 7/2 with Coral – nice £20 free bet for £5. We tipped them at longer odds at the start of the campaign and despite a good recent win against Villa we remain convinced they don’t have what it takes to stay up, especially if Berahino was to leave in January.
- Leicester to finish bottom at 5/2 with BetVictor – £25 free bet for new customers. They may have beaten Man United but since then they have been abysmal with nine defeats and two draws from their next 11 Premier League games. We tipped them at longer odds a little while ago and have also been tipping them for the drop but odds of 5/2 for them to finish bottom remain an excellent bet given they are five points adrift of their main rivals (Burnley) for that dubious honour.
Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich were the three unlucky (or just downright poor) teams who found themselves mixing it with the likes of Huddersfield and Brentford in the Championship instead of Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League after being relegated last season. But, as they say, the league table doesn’t lie, and – unfortunately for fans of the aforementioned three – the truth is these sides were pretty darn bad all season in 2013-14. They each had ample opportunities to escape the drop, but clearly changing your manager (twice in Fulham’s case!) mid-season is not always the answer to a side’s woes (though, to be fair, it worked a treat for Crystal Palace!).
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
The Premier League is clearly a marathon rather than a sprint, but it pays to get off to a good start and – for those most in danger of the drop – to get that crucial first win under your belt. The relegation betting odds will be yo-yoing all over the place as the 2014-15 season progresses, but we’ll be updating this article and adding tips regularly to keep on top of things and, crucially, to look for the best value betting options for the Premier League relegation market.
As things stand we think West Brom look like prime candidates for the drop. We’ve tipped them since the start of the season and given they have managed just three victories after 15 games and the fact they have scored just a single goal in their last five league matches, we’re happy to continue tipping them. Aside from their anomalous victory at White Hart Lane against Spurs in September, Alan Irvine’s men have only beaten sides who were playing in the Championship last season, namely Burnley and Leicester, and we fancy they will continue to struggle against most sides in the top flight. Looking ahead to the crucial run-in, the Baggies have a very tough final five games: Liverpool at home, Man United away, Newcastle away, Chelsea at home and, finally, Arsenal away. Given they have taken just a single point (against Liverpool) from the five games against those sides this season, we think they could struggle to get anything in the run-in and will be relegated to the second tier.
Our other main relegation betting tip at this stage is for Leicester to go down. Again, we’ve been sticking with our tip for a while now and odds of 5/1 became 4/1 and the 2/1 and that price has now gone the wrong side of evens and is set to shorten further in the coming weeks. They simply don’t have the quality or experience where it matters and despite the odd half-decent result, one point from eight games shows their level. Defeats to sides such as the aforementioned Baggies, QPR and Aston Villa point towards a swift return to Championship football.
Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and QPR can breathe a sigh of relief?
Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strings to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but our first inclination is that Burnley will be the ones who will struggle most. Of course, their relegation odds have been incredibly short from the off so our betting tips have generally focused elsewhere but with around a quarter of the season gone the Turf Moor club are now even unbackably short to finish bottom of the Premier League, let alone the relegation betting.
They were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. They are sure to battle to a number of admirable draws, but overall we think they will be heading straight back down. Leicester and QPR should fare a little better, but as stated, we feel that Leicester will be in trouble come May and there is even a chance that all three sides will be going straight back down to the Championship.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this:
Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet
West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred
Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365
Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James
Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet
West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet
Southampton – 11/2 with Coral
Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet
Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365
Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365
Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet
Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365
Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor
It was, of course, no major surprise to see Burnley start out as such favourites, simply because of their lack of financial resources. Their tiny budget put them at a major disadvantage and there is only so far team spirit and managerial nous can take a side.
Ladbrokes (who – for a limited time – are offering a monster £100 matched free bet to new customers) offererd best odds of 8/13 on Burnley and that’s looking like huge value right now.
At the other end of the spectrum sides such as Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, along with most of the other “big” sides, are all but safe from relegation. Only the tiny possibility of some sort of points deduction could threaten these sides and so you can usually limit your relegation net to just 10 teams or so, perhaps 13 or 14 at a push.
There remains a long way to go before the 2014-15 season and relegation battle will really come to a head but already things are taking shape and many sides will be desperately scrambling for points trying to reach the mythical 40-point total. Of course, as you’ll see below, we suspect significantly fewer points will be needed this season to stay up…
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever.
Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Man United and Spurs will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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