Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
The Premier League is clearly a marathon rather than a sprint, but it pays to get off to a good start and – for those most in danger of the drop – to get that crucial first win under your belt. The relegation betting odds will be yo-yoing all over the place as the 2014-15 season progresses, but we’ll be updating this article regularly to keep on top of things and, crucially, to look for the best value betting options for the Premier League relegation market. As things stand we think Swansea look good value for the drop. There were inconsistent last season and who have lost a number of key players, including Michu and Jonathan De Guzman, who has returned to his parent club Villarreal after a two-year loan spell. We also think West Brom are in serious danger of struggling this term; they have an inexperienced manager in Alan Irvine and no longer have the consistent goal threat that is necessary at this level. The finished in 17th position in the table, just three points above the relegation zone, but they drew more matches (15) than any side in the division and if luck doesn’t run their way we feel they will be in big trouble and we’d be surprised if Irvine lasts until Christmas in the job. Southampton might be another team that attracts a lot of interest in the relegation betting after they have sold their best players (Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw and Rickie Lambert, among others) and have also lost the services of their manager Mauricio Pochettino, who has joined Spurs. Much will depend on how well new boss Ronald Koeman can motivate the players that are left, but it could be a tough job indeed! So how about the sides who came up from the Championship?
Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and the play-off winner can breathe a sigh of relief? Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though there haven’t been all three going straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strongs to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but our first inclination is that Burnley will be the ones who will struggle most. They were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. They are sure to battle to a number of admirable draws, but overall we think they will be heading straight back down. Leicester and QPR should fare a little better, but let’s reassess after a few games.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Just a few days prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this: Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes. QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365 Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet Southampton – 11/2 with Coral Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365 Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365 Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365 Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor Okay, so while it’s all done and dusted in terms of the relegation battle for the the 2013-14 season, the new season is here already… and the World Cup filled the summer void admirably, so we barely noticed it was away!
As such, now is clearly the time to ask the question: who will be relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2014-15 season? As usual it is likely to be the three teams who come up from the Championship who will be favourites for the drop, and generally it is the winner of the play-offs who will be priced at the shortest odds. As things stand, Burnley – who came second in the Championship behind Leicester – are the odds-on favourites to go straight back down again, priced at best odds of 8/13 with Ladbrokes (who – for a limited time – are offering a monster £100 matched free bet to new customers). Sky Bet (£30 free bet) are offering 2/1 for QPR, with West Brom and the Championship title winners Leicester next in line, both at 13/5 with Coral (£20 free bet), while Crystal Palace – who survived in style last season under Tony Pulis – are priced at 5/2 with Bet365, who offer a ginormous £200 freebie to new customers. Aston Villa – who have flirted with the drop too often in recent seasons – are next at 3/1 with Ladbrokes, and their luck might just run out this season. Steve Bruce’s Hull – who were so close to lifting the FA Cup – are next up at 7/2 with Bet365 with Swansea looking like decent value at 5/1 with Stan James (£10 free bet). If you think Manchester United’s time has well and truly passed and they will fair even worse this season, you might be tempted by the odds of 1000/1 for them to go down. But we’d suggest saving your money if we were you.
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League. However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target. Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever. Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Man United and Spurs will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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