Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2015-16?
Latest Premier League Relegation Betting Tips
- Sunderland to stay up at 5/6 with Sky Bet (Bet £5, Get £20)
Who are the favourites for relegation from the Premier League in 2015-16?
Best odds on Aston Villa to be relegated: NO MORE BETS!
Best odds on Newcastle to be relegated: 2/7 with Coral (Bet £5, Get £20) – Matches left: Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A), Tottenham (H)
Best odds on Sunderland to be relegated: 2 1/20 with Ladbrokes (£50 free bet) – Matches left: Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A)
Best odds on Norwich to be relegated: 1/3 with Bet365 (£200 Bonus) – Matches left: Arsenal (A), Man United (H), Watford (H), Everton (A)
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season? Premier League Relegation Betting Tips 2015-16
There are only a handful of games remaining, and it looks like this battle will be heading down to the wire. Aston Villa are gone, but there are two more sides joining them in the Championship next term. Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland are all in danger, and only one of them will manage to survive.
You can tell a lot from their remaining fixtures, with only a couple left. We’re going to be focusing on upcoming fixtures rather than results when picking out our bets here. There are four games left for both Norwich and Sunderland, while Newcastle have three games left. They are currently in the most danger, as they sit 19th in the table, one point from safety.
Sunderland battled for a point at home to Arsenal on Sunday, and that moved them out of the bottom three. They’re above Norwich on goal difference, having been way off the pace not that long ago. The Black Cats have plenty of history when it comes to great escapes, so it’s no shock that they’re now favourites to survive this season.
The odds are getting very short for Norwich and Newcastle. Betfair have them both at 2/7 to go down, while Sky Bet price them at 4/5 to both join Villa in the second tier. The Black Cats have Sam Allardyce in charge, and he’s led his side to just two defeats in their last 10. That kind of form is bound to make them the likeliest to stay up. They have a chance to keep that run going, with their upcoming fixtures.
The Mackems have four winnable games left, as they face four sides who aren’t playing well. They go to Stoke, then host Chelsea and Everton before heading to Watford. All four of those have nothing to play for, and most of their players will be thinking ahead to the Euros or their holidays. We don’t see enough fight in those four to get in Sunderland’s way.
Norwich also face two of those sides, but their run in is much harder. They go to Arsenal, then host Manchester United. Two sides who are fighting for the Champions League spots. They finish at home to Watford then away to Everton, but by then it could be too late. If they lose their next two against those two giants, Norwich could already be gone before the final day.
They could be overtaken by Newcastle, but the Magpies have a mixed few games. They play Palace at home and Villa away, but they’ve got Spurs on the final day. Alan Pardew will want to get one over his former club, while Spurs will want to end the season strongly. Villa should be three easy points, but the Toon might struggle to keep pace with Sunderland.
We’re backing the Black Cats to survive at 5/6 with Sky Bet. It isn’t the biggest price, but we can’t see anyone catching them. Norwich might be worth a look to go down at 2/7 given their next two matches, if you’re planning to stake a lot. Outside of that, backing Sunderland seems to be the only value pick here.
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Premier League Relegation Odds 2015-16
Here are the pre-season Premier League relegation betting odds the bookies posted for the 2015-16 season:
Watford – 8/11 with Bet365
Norwich – 11/10 with Bet365
Bournemouth – 6/5 with Coral
Sunderland – 5/2 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 9/2 with Sky Bet
Leicester – 5/1 with Coral
West Brom – 5/1 with Sky Bet
Newcastle – 6/1 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 13/2 with Betfair
West Ham – 15/2 with Betfair
Swansea – 9/1 with Bet365
Stoke – 14/1 with BetVictor
Southampton – 66/1 with Ladbrokes
Everton – 100/1 with Sky Bet
Tottenham – 300/1 with Ladbrokes
Liverpool – 750/1 with Ladbrokes
Arsenal – 3000/1 with Ladbrokes
Man Utd – 3000/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea – 7500/1 with Ladbrokes
Man City – 7500/1 with Ladbrokes
Which teams were relegated from the Premier League in the 2014-15 season?
Hull City, Burnley and QPR were the three teams to be relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2014-15 season. QPR finished rock bottom on just 30 points having managed just eight victories (two on the road) and six draws. Burnley were second from bottom on 33 points (seven wins but 12 draws) with Hull slipping into the final relegation place on 35 points having won eight and drawn 11 games. Hull finish three points behind both Aston Villa and Sunderland, and had a better goal difference than each of those sides.
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 season, Burnley were the 8/13 favourites for relegation, QPR were next in the betting at 2/1, while Hull were relative outsiders for the drop at 7/2.
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Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2016?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. Last season, though, of the three promoted sides only Leicester survived, Burnley and QPR falling straight back into the second tier.
Things will undoubtedly be tough for Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich this season. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strings to keep them in the top flight. Leicester were the ones to make a mockery of the odds in the 2014-15 season, having clawed their way out of danger having been slumped at the bottom of the table for much of the campaign.
Of the three promoted sides, we have the feeling that Norwich will be best equipped to adapt to life in the top flight, not least because they have only spent a single season away from it, but also because Alex Neil’s men had an outstanding second half of the season and will go into the new campaign with a good deal of momentum.
Bournemouth and Watford, however, could stuggle, especially the Hornets who looks set to lose the services of manager Slavisa Jokanovic. Time will tell whether either or both sides can get to grips to life in the Premier League, but we have our severe doubts. Can they prove us wrong?
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2015-16?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this we expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever, although Liverpool, Everton and Spurs have underperformed thus far.
Chelsea, City, Arsenal and Man United will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. We would expect teams such as Liverpool and Everton to improve in the second half of the season and if they do it could prove very difficult for the strugglers to gain any points – other than against each other. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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