2017-18 Premier League Relegation Tips, Analysis, Odds, Stats and Trivia
If you want to know who’s going down this season, you’re in the right place. We’ve got relegation betting tips that will be updated throughout the season. We’ve also got lots of nice relegation stats, facts and trvia.
We’ll be looking at relegation trends, who has gone down in recent years and where they finished the season before. We’ll also take a look at how many points are needed to stay in the Premier League and give you our tips and strategy for betting on relegation.
Latest Premier League Relegation Tips
- Newcastle to be relegated – 3/1 at Sky Bet
- Burnley to be relegated – 13/8 at BetVictor
Who will be Relegated: Betting Tips and Analysis
Here you can see our thought process for the two tips above. Here at FreeBetsFreeTips, we’re always looking for value. So, we aren’t necessarily saying the two or three sides most likely to go down. More we are highlighting bets where we think the current odds are simply too high.
We won’t restrict ourselves to the relegation market either. We may also, from time to time, have tips for a side to stay up and avoid relegation. We’ll also be scouring the other relegation markets for value. This covers bets such as “to finish bottom”, “bottom at Christmas” the relegation treble and perhaps even a side to finish in the bottom half. If the value is there.
Newcastle to be relegated – 3/1 at Sky Bet
We tipped Newcastle for relegation before the season began at longer odds. We still think they offer value now at 3/1. The Toon lost their opening game 2-0 at home. Whilst they did ok against Spurs, they were second best and Shelvey’s red card will hurt them.
Off the pitch things still look unsettled and Rafa Benitez is cutting a frustrated figure. Their signings have been low key and the fans and manager are restless. Rafa could leave before too long and the Magpies will struggle to attract anyone of his calibre.
Mike Ashley has more or less admitted he can’t compete financially and their squad looks thin at this level. 3/1 is great value, not least with Sky Bet offering bet £5, get £20 free to new customers!
Burnley to be relegated – 13/8 at BetVictor (£40 bonus)
Burnley may seem a strange tip after their startling 3-2 win against Chelsea on the opening day. However, much as we admire Sean Dyche, he cannot keep performing miracles on a tiny budget. The Clarets have lost their main striker, Andre Gray and despite their win at the Bridge we don’t see where their goals are going to come from.
They were sensational at home last term but a repeat of those stats seems unlikely. They lack class and they lack depth. The manager is brilliant at what he does but there is every chance a bigger club will come calling. Even if they don’t we see Burnley struggling and 13/8 looks a solid price.
Whether you agree with our relegation tips or not, why not claim a free bet to boost your betting power?
Relegation Betting Strategy and Guide
Obviously, if you’re happy to follow our tips, you don’t need to worry about betting strategy! However, we would never advise blindly following ANY betting tips if you are staking more than just small “for fun” amounts. You should at least have a decent understanding of the market – and indeed betting in general – before risking your cash.
Really, when betting on any of the main relegation markets, our advice would largely be the same as for when placing any bet. The main markets concern who will go down, who will finish bottom and who will stay up. However, there are more relegation bets possible, such as a team to be bottom at Christmas, relegation doubles and trebles (a tricast).
No matter what you are betting on, the key thing to target is value. Yes, you might think that Southampton, Everton or even Man United are certain to stay up but nothing is 100% certain. With any get you place, you must ask, do the odds represent value.
OK, you might be CONVINCED the Saints will stay in the Premier League and think odds of 1/33 is buying money. But would you back them at 1/50? 1/100? 1/10,000? Deciding what is value is very tough but at least question at what odds you would and wouldn’t be prepared to back even the surest of sure things.
The best way to spot value is by doing your research and studying as much as you can about the bet or market you’re thinking about. This applies to any bet, including, of course, relegation betting in the Premier League.
The more information you have, the better your odds of spotting something the bookies have missed. But what should you be looking out for?
Factors to Consider in Relegation Betting
When a side defies the odds to either stay up, be relegated or anything else, there are usually factors that could have been seen earlier. The depth of analysis as to why Leicester managed to overcome the famous odds of 5,000/1 to win the Premier League is staggering.
Whilst predicting Leicester’s glory at the beginning of the season required a good slice of blind hope and good luck, the Foxes’ title odds remained far too high even as they won game after game.
People missed many factors and, just as importantly, were blindsided by the belief that there was simply no way that Leicester could win the title. There are always lessons to be learned when it comes to betting!
- Transfers – in the summer window and again in January, transfers can have a huge impact on a side’s chances of survival, or relegation. Keep an eye on the transfer news and be prepared to act before the odds change
- Momentum – momentum and confidence can be huge in football. Look out for swings. Part of Leicester’s title success came from their easy start to the season where they built momentum
- Newly promoted sides – statistically one or more of the newcomers will go down, can you figure out which? Momentum, morale and a good dtart can be crucial
- Bad form – bad form can carry over from the season before, especially where there are fundamental reasons a team ended the campaign badly. This is similar to morale and momentum, whilst inactivity in the summer window can make players and fans anxious
- Managers – many people argue the manager is the most important person at a football club. Has the manager changed or are they likely to before long?
- Time at the bar – there is a strong correlation between sides who have struggled for a season or two and sides being relegated. Look out for teams that have narrowly avoided the drop in recent campaigns. Their time is likely to come soon enough. Sunderland in 2016-17 were a fine example of this
Premier League Relegation Analysis, Stats, Facts and Trivia
Top 10 Relegation Stats and Facts
Please note the following stats and facts are correct as of the 2017/18 season.
- Straight Back Down – since the Premier League began, all three promoted clubs have gone straight back down only once, in 1998 (Bolton, Barnsley, Palace)
- Staying Up – all three stayed up in 2001, with Fulham, Blackburn and Bolton the three to do the business and in 2011 (QPR, Norwich and Swansea)
- Yo-Yo Clubs – Palace and Norwich had been relegated from the Premier League four times – more than any other side. In 2017, Boro and Sunderland joined them on four relegations
- Points – West Ham went down with 42 points in 2003 but West Brom stayed up with just 34 in 2005, the highest and lowest totals in the 20-team English top flight.
- Deary Derby – in 2008 Derby finished bottom of the Premier League with just 11 points
- Christmas Curse – the side bottom at Christmas usually goes down but West Brom (2004-5), Sunderland (2013-14) and Leicester (2014-15) all survived
- Lift Teams – in Germany yo-yo sides are called fahrstuhlmannschaften – lift teams. In Turkey they are known as asansör takı, which means the same.
- The Ultimate Yo-Yo Side – Norwegian side SK Brann hold the world record for consecutive relegations and promotions after being relegated in 1979 and switching between the second division and top flight until 1987 when they managed to cling onto their place at Norway’s top table. Or topp tabellen as they (maybe!) call it.
- All The Way Down – Think Glasgow Rangers and Juventus had it tough with their sudden demotions? Spare a thought for German side SSV Ulm 1846, who were relegated from the Bundesliga in 2000, went down again the following year, were unlicensed to play in the third division so put down to the fourth, where they refused to play “for legal reasons” and so played in the German 5th tier in 2001. That’s the equivalent of playing Chelsea and Manchester United one year and two years later facing Hyde and Hereford!
- Goals Don’t Keep You Up – in 2010-2011 Blackpool scored a whopping 55 goals but still went down. In 2014-15 Liverpool scored 52 and finished sixth!
How Many Points Are Needed To Avoid Relegation From The Premier League?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation.
Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like West Brom must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since the Premier League moved to 20 teams in 1995/6, the average number of points needed is 37. That average would actually be even lower if you assume a side had a better goal difference than their rivals.
Is 37 the New 40?
In fact, we would say that 37 points is a good benchmark to use. Six times that would have been enough to see a side finish a point clear of the team in 18th. Fewer points would have been enough a further seven times. Indeed, back in 2010, just 31 points would have seen your club safely avoid relegation, as said.
In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this we expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
When 40 Leaves You Short
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total.
Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. In 1997 and 1998 40 points would also have seen a side get relegated (subject to goal difference), with 41 points the required total.
Points to Stay in the Premier League – the Last 10 Years
You can see below the points garnered by the 18th placed side for each of the last 10 years and their goal difference.
- 2017, Hull City, 34 points, -43
- 2016, Newcastle, 37 points, -21
- 2015, Hull City, 35 points, -18
- 2014, Norwich City, 33 points, -34
- 2013, Wigan, 36 points, -26
- 2012, Bolton, 36 points, -31
- 2011, Birmingham City, 39 points, -21
- 2010, Burnley, 30 points, -40
- 2009, Newcastle, 34 points, -19
- 2008, Reading, 36 points, -25
If you’re side is in the relegation dogfight, turn your attention to the World Cup instead. Check out our offers and tips for Russia 2018!