Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
Latest Premier League Relegation Betting Tips (15th April 2015)
- Leicester to be relegated at odds of 21/20 with Ladbrokes (£25 free bets to new customers). The Foxes have been bottom of the table all season, so this is a huge price, despite their recent revival.
- Hull to be relegated at odds of 21/20 with Ladbrokes (£25 free bets to new customers). The Tigers are looking short on confidence with a gruelling fixture list to come, which makes it hard to see them picking up many points in the run-in for the Premier League campaign.
Premier League Relegation Run-in and Relegation Odds 2014-15
Here are the fixtures faced in the Premier League run-in for the teams in the relegation dogfight (and their odds for the drop!):
Leicester (21/20 with Ladbrokes) – Swansea (H), Burnely (A), Chelsea (H), Newcastle (H), Southampton (H), Sunderland (A), QPR (H)
Burnley (4/6 with Coral) – Everton (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Hull (A), Stoke (H), Aston Villa (A)
QPR (1/5 with Totesport) – West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), Leicester (A)
Hull (21/20 with Ladbrokes) – Crystal Palace (A), Liverpool (H), Arsenal (H), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Man United (H)
Sunderland (11/10 with Coral) – Stoke (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A), Leicester (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A)
Aston Villa (11/1 with BetVictor) – Liverpool (H), Man City (A), Everton (H), West Ham (H), Southampton (A), Burnley (H)
West Brom (14/1 with BetVictor) – Crystal Palace (A), Liverpool (H), Man United (A), Newcastle (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A)
Newcastle (100/1 with Coral) – Tottenham (H), Swansea (H), Leicester (A), West Brom (H), QPR (A), West Ham (H)
Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich were the three unlucky (or just downright poor) teams who find themselves mixing it with the likes of Huddersfield and Brentford in the Championship instead of Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League after being relegated last season.
But, as they say, the league table doesn’t lie, and – unfortunately for fans of the aforementioned three – the truth is these sides were pretty darn bad all season in 2013-14. They each had ample opportunities to escape the drop, but clearly changing your manager (twice in Fulham’s case!) mid-season is not always the answer to a side’s woes (though, to be fair, it worked a treat for Crystal Palace!).
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
Once again the weekend’s Premier League action saw more twists and turns in the battle to avoid the drop, with the picture at the bottom changing once again. Another win for Leicester saw them move within three points of safety with a game in hand, dramatically improving their survival hopes. The Foxes won 3-2 at West Brom to record back to back wins, but they still sit in last place in the table.
Above them, QPR moved above Burnley with a draw at Aston Villa last week, but they couldn’t add to their points tally. Those two sides hosted the top two over the weekend, with Burnley going down 1-0 to Arsenal and QPR losing by the same score to Chelsea. That keeps both in the bottom three, but Burnley’s upcoming fixtures will give them a lot more belief than Rangers currently have.
Above them, Hull are in a precarious position after losing 2-0 to Southampton. They still have another four of the top seven to face in their final six games, and they sit just two points above 18th. If you think Hull can’t survive their tough run of games, you can get them at 11/10 to be relegated.
Along with Hull, Sunderland are still in big trouble, after they suffered a 4-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace. The Black Cats were torn apart by the Eagles, as Dick Advocaat’s derby triumph last week was quickly brushed over. Sunderland are just a point above Hull, and they’ll be prime candidates for the drop if they continue to play like this.
We’re now down to a five team fight for survival, after Aston Villa won 1-0 at Tottenham. Villa are now six points clear of the drop, and they should be able to look forward to a season in the top flight next year.
Everyone below Tim Sherwood’s side are fighting for their lives, and a majority of them aren’t going to survive the season. There’s still a long way to go and quite a few twists left, but there’s certainly value to be found on the relegation markets.
Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and QPR can breathe a sigh of relief?
Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strings to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but, as said, it’s Leicester who we think are in biggest danger.
Burnley were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. If Danny Ings stays fit they will have a real chance, especially after a strong start to winter, but there is every chaance they will join Leicester in the Championship next season.
As for QPR, we think they will be safe. They remain without an away win but their first eight away days have all been to top teams – the lowest ranked side they have travelled to is 11th place Everton! The fixture list will ease for them and with their strong home form set to continue (despite hard fixtures) they should just about have enough to scrape by, especially if Charlie Austin plays enough games and maintains his blistering start to the Premier League season.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this:
Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet
West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred
Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365
Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James
Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet
West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet
Southampton – 11/2 with Coral
Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet
Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365
Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365
Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet
Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365
Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor
It was, of course, no major surprise to see Burnley start out as such favourites, simply because of their lack of financial resources. Their tiny budget put them at a major disadvantage and there is only so far team spirit and managerial nous can take a side.
At the other end of the spectrum sides such as Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, along with most of the other “big” sides, are all but safe from relegation. Only the tiny possibility of some sort of points deduction could threaten these sides and so you can usually limit your relegation net to just 10 teams or so, perhaps 13 or 14 at a push.
There remains a long way to go before the 2014-15 season and relegation battle will really come to a head but already things are taking shape and many sides will be desperately scrambling for points trying to reach the mythical 40-point total. Of course, as you’ll see below, we suspect significantly fewer points will be needed this season to stay up…
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever, although Liverpool, Everton and Spurs have underperformed thus far.
Chelsea, City, Arsenal and Man United will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. We would expect teams such as Liverpool and Everton to improve in the second half of the season and if they do it could prove very difficult for the strugglers to gain any points – other than against each other. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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