Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
Latest Premier League Relegation Betting Tips (18th May 2015)
- Newcastle to be relegated – 7/1 with Coral (£20 free bet to new customers). The Magpies are in awful form ahead of this weekend, and West Ham manager Sam Allardyce would love to play a part in relegating his former club, whilst Hull’s opponents Man United don’t travel well and have nothing to play for.
- Burnley to Finish Bottom – 6/4 with Bet365 (£200 risk free bet to new customers). The Clarets have a tough game away at Aston Villa next, and they could slip down a place on the final day and finish bottom of the Premier League.
Premier League Relegation Run-in and Relegation Odds 2014-15
Here are the fixtures faced in the Premier League run-in for the teams in the relegation dogfight (and their odds for the drop!):
QPR (Relegated) – Leicester (A)
Burnley (Relegated) – Aston Villa (A)
Hull (2/9 with Betfair) – Man United (H)
Newcastle (7/1 with Bet365) – West Ham (H)
Sunderland (11/1 with Paddy Power) – Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A)
Leicester (Safe) – QPR (H)
Aston Villa (Safe) – Burnley (H)
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
The penultimate weekend of the Premier League season set up a dramatic final day with three teams still in danger of the drop. Leicester City’s remarkable recent comeback continued, as they secured their place in the league with a goalless draw at Sunderland. Their four point lead over Hull is enough to keep their place for next season, completing an incredible surge up the table.
That point wasn’t good enough for Sunderland, and they’re still involved in the relegation fight going into the last day. They face Chelsea away next, but they’ll only get pulled in if Hull win and Newcastle avoid defeat. If that does happen, the Black Cats will need to shock the champions on the day they lift the Premier League title. It looks like Dick Advocaat’s side will be relying on results elsewhere to save them.
Newcastle’s awful run of form continued, as they lost 2-1 at already relegated QPR. The Magpies led at Loftus Road, but a comeback from the hosts means John Carver’s side are sweating over their top flight status right until the end of the season. They host West Ham on the final day, and they need a win to be sure of survival. While the Hammers aren’t in great form, Sam Allardyce would love to get one over his former club, and doom them to the drop.
The only reason Newcastle aren’t in the bottom three right now is because of Hull. The Toon have been awful, but Hull just can’t take advantage. The Tigers lost again on Saturday, beaten 2-0 at White Hart Lane. They host Manchester United on the final day, and they’ll be hoping for a much rotated side from the Red Devils. You can get 14/1 with BetVictor for Hull and West Ham both to win on Sunday.
Finally, Aston Villa’s place in the Premier League was secured after Hull’s defeat. The Villains lost 6-1 to Southampton in the early kick off, which looked to push them back into trouble, but their four point lead over 18th stayed intact after Hull lost. Villa can now look ahead to the FA Cup final in two weeks, while the three sides below them will sweating for their Premier League futures.
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Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich were the three unlucky (or just downright poor) teams who find themselves mixing it with the likes of Huddersfield and Brentford in the Championship instead of Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League after being relegated last season.
Anecdotally at least, the league table doesn’t lie, and – unfortunately for fans of the aforementioned three – the truth is these sides were pretty darn bad all season in 2013-14. They each had ample opportunities to escape the drop, but clearly changing your manager (twice in Fulham’s case!) mid-season is not always the answer to a side’s woes (though, to be fair, it worked a treat for Crystal Palace!).
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Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and QPR can breathe a sigh of relief?
Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strings to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but, as said, it’s Leicester who we think are in biggest danger.
Burnley were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. If Danny Ings stays fit they will have a real chance, especially after a strong start to winter, but there is every chaance they will join Leicester in the Championship next season.
As for QPR, we think they will be safe. They remain without an away win but their first eight away days have all been to top teams – the lowest ranked side they have travelled to is 11th place Everton! The fixture list will ease for them and with their strong home form set to continue (despite hard fixtures) they should just about have enough to scrape by, especially if Charlie Austin plays enough games and maintains his blistering start to the Premier League season.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this:
Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet
West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred
Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365
Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James
Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet
West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet
Southampton – 11/2 with Coral
Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet
Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365
Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365
Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet
Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365
Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor
It was, of course, no major surprise to see Burnley start out as such favourites, simply because of their lack of financial resources. Their tiny budget put them at a major disadvantage and there is only so far team spirit and managerial nous can take a side.
At the other end of the spectrum sides such as Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, along with most of the other “big” sides, are all but safe from relegation. Only the tiny possibility of some sort of points deduction could threaten these sides and so you can usually limit your relegation net to just 10 teams or so, perhaps 13 or 14 at a push.
There remains a long way to go before the 2014-15 season and relegation battle will really come to a head but already things are taking shape and many sides will be desperately scrambling for points trying to reach the mythical 40-point total. Of course, as you’ll see below, we suspect significantly fewer points will be needed this season to stay up…
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever, although Liverpool, Everton and Spurs have underperformed thus far.
Chelsea, City, Arsenal and Man United will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. We would expect teams such as Liverpool and Everton to improve in the second half of the season and if they do it could prove very difficult for the strugglers to gain any points – other than against each other. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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