Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
Latest Premier League Relegation Betting Tips (20th January 2015)
- Hull City to be relegated at 6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet £5, Get £20 at Sky Bet. Hull have enjoyed easy fixtures thus far, and whilst we tipped them for the drop at 11/4 a while ago, even at 6/4 – following defeat at West Ham – they look good value to be relegated this season.
- Burnley to Stay Up at 6/4 with BetVictor – £25 free bet for new customers. Okay, they’ve had some poor results, but if Burnley can keep hold of Danny Ings we feel they will have the right mix of defensive capability and goal scoring ability to stay in the Premier League.
Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich were the three unlucky (or just downright poor) teams who find themselves mixing it with the likes of Huddersfield and Brentford in the Championship instead of Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League after being relegated last season. But, as they say, the league table doesn’t lie, and – unfortunately for fans of the aforementioned three – the truth is these sides were pretty darn bad all season in 2013-14. They each had ample opportunities to escape the drop, but clearly changing your manager (twice in Fulham’s case!) mid-season is not always the answer to a side’s woes (though, to be fair, it worked a treat for Crystal Palace!).
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
In the rough and tumble of the Premier League dogfight sometimes sacking a manager can badly backfire (as it did for Fulham, Cardiff and Norwich last season who all went down despite replacing their bosses… twice in Fulham’s case!). But sometimes, however, bringing in a new man can really improve your chances of staying in the top flight… especially if that man happens to be Tony Pulis!
The Baggies looked in serious trouble not so long ago as a hat-trick of defeats at the back end of 2014 saw them perilously close to falling into the bottom three. But then Pulis was brought in and the man who saved Crystal Palace’s bacon last season looks like doing the same for West Brom this term. Okay, it’s early day, but a 7-0 win over Gateshead in the FA Cup, a dogged 1-0 home win over fellow strugglers Hull City and a stoic performance to earn a point against Everton at Goodison Park, and you have to believe the former Stoke man really does have the knowledge and skill to keep the Baggies safe this term.
Looking elsewhere then, Hull are having a torrid time of things and are in real trouble after suffering five defeats from their last seven league matches. Steve Bruce will be hoping to buy well during the transfer window – as he did last season – but injuries are taking their toll and if they don’t get some points on the board soon they might leave themselves a mountain to climb to get out of danger. Priced at best odds of 6/4 with Sky Bet, we think backing them now for the drop could be a prudent move.
QPR are another side who are very much in the relegation mire and though the chairman has said he will leave Harry Redknapp in charge, we are not convinced the team he has assembled has the requisite commitment and guile to stay in the division. The Hoops are currently odds on at 8/11 with Bet365 and that looks a fair enough price as things stand given they have failed to take a single point away from home all season! That is simply a recipe for disaster.
The third relegation place, in our eyes, looks set to be a straight battle between two of the other promoted sides from last season, Burnley and Leicester. If Burnley can keep hold of Danny Ings (who is apparently a transfer target for a few Premier League clubs during the current window) we feel they will have enough to just about edge ahead of Leicester. The latter are priced at 8/11 with BetVictor to be playing in the Championship next season and we’d grab that sooner rather than later.
If you are looking for slightly longer odds, you could do worse than plump for Aston Villa at 3/1 with BetVictor. They have been poor for most of the season and have the worst attack in the division, scoring a goal every two games on average. Paul Lambert is somewhat hamstrung given the club’s situation (it is up for sale but there is no immediate prospect of a buyer coming in to save the day), but defeats to QPR, West Brom and Leicester so far this season will really have alarm bells ringing amongst the Villa faithful. If things don’t improve the odds for them to go down will get shorter and shorter, so it might be worth backing them for the drop now.
Crystal Palace – another who have had a positive effect after appointing a new manager, Alan Pardew – should be safe enough now, though Sunderland are looking a little precarious. They have the fighting spirit to grind out results, but they certainly need some more wins on the board. Some might be tempted by the odds of 3/1 with Bet365 for the Black Cats to go down, but we feel they will have just enough.
So, as things stand, our tips for the drop are Hull, QPR and Leicester.
Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and QPR can breathe a sigh of relief?
Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strings to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but, as said, it’s Leicester who we think are in biggest danger.
Burnley were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. If Danny Ings stays fit they will have a real chance, especially after a strong start to winter, but there is every chaance they will join Leicester in the Championship next season.
As for QPR, we think they will be safe. They remain without an away win but their first eight away days have all been to top teams – the lowest ranked side they have travelled to is 11th place Everton! The fixture list will ease for them and with their strong home form set to continue (despite hard fixtures) they should just about have enough to scrape by, especially if Charlie Austin plays enough games and maintains his blistering start to the Premier League season.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this:
Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet
West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred
Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365
Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James
Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet
West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet
Southampton – 11/2 with Coral
Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet
Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365
Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365
Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet
Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365
Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor
It was, of course, no major surprise to see Burnley start out as such favourites, simply because of their lack of financial resources. Their tiny budget put them at a major disadvantage and there is only so far team spirit and managerial nous can take a side.
Ladbrokes (who – for a limited time – are offering a monster £100 matched free bet to new customers) offererd best odds of 8/13 on Burnley and that’s looking like huge value right now.
At the other end of the spectrum sides such as Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, along with most of the other “big” sides, are all but safe from relegation. Only the tiny possibility of some sort of points deduction could threaten these sides and so you can usually limit your relegation net to just 10 teams or so, perhaps 13 or 14 at a push.
There remains a long way to go before the 2014-15 season and relegation battle will really come to a head but already things are taking shape and many sides will be desperately scrambling for points trying to reach the mythical 40-point total. Of course, as you’ll see below, we suspect significantly fewer points will be needed this season to stay up…
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever, although Liverpool, Everton and Spurs have underperformed thus far.
Chelsea, City, Arsenal and Man United will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. We would expect teams such as Liverpool and Everton to improve in the second half of the season and if they do it could prove very difficult for the strugglers to gain any points – other than against each other. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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