Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
So it’s all over for another season as Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich are the three unlucky teams who will find themselves mixing it with the likes of Huddersfield and Brentford instead of Arsenal and Manchester United. But, as they say, the league table doesn’t lie, and – unfortunately for fans of the aforementioned three – the truth is these sides have been pretty darn bad all season. They each had ample opportunity to escape the drop, but clearly changing your manager (twice in Fulham’s case!) mid-season is not always the answer to a side’s woes (though, to be fair, it worked a treat for Crystal Palace!).
Who are favourites to be relegated?
Okay, so while it’s all done and dusted in terms of the relegation battle for the the 2013-14 season, the new season is just around the corner… and we’ve got a World Cup to fill the void, so it’ll be here in no time!
As such, maybe it’s not too early to ask the question: who will be relegated in the 2014-15 season? As usual it is likely to be the three teams who come up from the Championship who will be favourites for the drop, and generally it is the winner of the play-offs who will be priced at the shortest odds.
As things stand, Burnley – who came second in the Championship behind Leicester – are the odds-on favourites to go straight back down again, priced at best odds of 4/7 with Sky Bet (who offer a £20 matched free bet to new customers). The same bookie is offering 2/1 for Leicester, and – perhaps surprisingly given their fine recent form – Crystal Palace.
Stoke – who look like finishing in the top half – are next at 5/1, which looks far too short to us, while Newcastle, who have have a horrendous end to the season, look a far more sensible option at 7/1.
If you think Manchester United’s time has well and truly passed and they will fair even worse next year, you might be tempted by the odds of 250/1 for them to go down. But we’d save our money if we were you.
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Who will be relegated this season?
Well, the answer to this is Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich. We’ve long been tipping Cardiff to finish at the bottom of the pile, whilst the writing has been on the wall for Fulham since they made their second managerial change of the season. Norwich could have had enough to avoid the drop, but Sunderland’s outstanding late-season form condemned the Canaries to the Championship.
We’ll we be as soon as the World Cup is over with a full analysis of the relegation battle for the 2014-15 Premier League season, but check our site prior to and during the World Cup as we’ll be bring you the best World Cup Betting Offers to help you skew the odds in your favour. And here’s a tip for you: England to win! (Well, we can but dream… please don’t put your house on that one!)
Will the newly promoted sides be going straight back down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and the play-off winner can breathe a sigh of relief? Well, not quite.
Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though there haven’t been all three going straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strongs to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season.
Who were the favourites for relegation at the start of the 2014-2015 season?
We’ll update the odds in this section as soon as more bookies join the party, but at present Sky Bet have Burnley priced at 4/7 for the drop, Burnley and (harshly) Crystal Palace at 2/1, Stoke at 5/1 and Newcastle at 7/1.
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May.
40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League. However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season).
Three seasons ago 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed.
This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides are taking so many points, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton, Southampton and Newcastle all over performing and Man United and Spurs sure to improve. This leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship.
Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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