Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2014-15?
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Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
The Premier League is clearly a marathon rather than a sprint, but it pays to get off to a good start and – for those most in danger of the drop – to get that crucial first win under your belt. The relegation betting odds will be yo-yoing all over the place as the 2014-15 season progresses, but we’ll be updating this article regularly to keep on top of things and, crucially, to look for the best value betting options for the Premier League relegation market.
As things stand we think West Brom look good value for the drop. They were inconsistent last season and have failed to strengthen sufficiently during the summer. They have an inexperienced manager in Alan Irvine and no longer have the consistent goal threat that is necessary at this level. They finished in 17th position in the table, just three points above the relegation zone, but they drew more matches (15) than any side in the division and if luck doesn’t run their way we feel they will be in big trouble and we’d be surprised if Irvine lasts until Christmas in the job.
Burnley also look destined for the drop, even at this early stage. While they battled to a creditable home point against struggling Manchester United, the lack of real goal threat the Clarets pose will cost them dear. They might have signed George Boyd from Hull, but he’s hardly Lionel Messi, and with just one goal from their three games so far, we think they are a decent shout to finish bottom of the pile at odds that are sure to tumble if they don’t get wins from crucial upcoming games against Crystal Palace, Sunderland, West Brom and Leicester.
All those sides are likely to be in the mix for relegation, but we feel the appointment of Neil Warnock as the new Eagles boss might be enough to galvanise the side to repeat their fine form of last season. While Leicester have performed well in the face of a very tough start to earn points against Everton and Arsenal and should have enough to avoid the drop.
Will the Newly Promoted Sides be Going Straight Back Down in 2015?
The three promoted sides usually feature heavily in the relegation betting but in recent seasons the new sides have fared pretty well. In the 2012-13 season both Southampton and West Ham survived and did so with relative ease, whilst the season before that the trend was well and truly bucked, as for the first time in 10 years all three sides (Swansea, Norwich and QPR) stayed up. The 2013-14 season, meanwhile, saw two of the three promoted sides (Hull and Crystal Palace) once again avoid the drop, Steve Bruce and Tony Pulis doing extremely good jobs on limited resources. So does that mean Leicester, Burnley and QPR can breathe a sigh of relief?
Well, not quite. Probability dictates that at least one newly promoted side will be relegated each season though all three haven’t gone straight back down since 1997-98. That year Crystal Palace were one of the unlucky trio, along with Barnsley and Bolton, but though the Eagles were favourites to finish bottom for much of the 2013-14 season (and were priced at 5/2 to do so at the start of the season but went as short as 1/20 at one point) Pulis pulled the right strongs to keep them in the top flight. Let’s wait and see how the three newly promoted sides will fair in the 2014-15 season, but our first inclination is that Burnley will be the ones who will struggle most.
They were defensively superb last season in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different kettle of fish and with a lack of top class attackers we feel they will find it very difficult to beat sides in this division. They are sure to battle to a number of admirable draws, but overall we think they will be heading straight back down. Leicester and QPR should fare a little better, but let’s reassess after a few games.
Who Were Favourites to be Relegated at the Start of 2014-15?
Prior to the start of the 2014-15 Premier League season, the relegation odds were priced like this:
Burnley – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
QPR – 2/1 with Sky Bet West Brom and Leicester – 13/5 with Coral
Crystal Palace – 11/4 with BetVictor
Aston Villa – 3/1 with Betfred
Hull City – 7/2 with Bet365
Swansea – 5/1 with Stan James
Sunderland – 5/1 with Sky Bet
West Ham – 11/2 with Sky Bet
Southampton – 11/2 with Coral
Newcastle – 10/1 with Sky Bet
Stoke – 10/1 with Bet365
Everton – 200/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham – 500/1 with Bet365
Man United – 1000/1 with Sky Bet
Arsenal – 1000/1 with Bet365
Liverpool – 1500/1 with Ladbrokes
Chelsea and Man City – 2500/1 with BetVictor
But how about this season? As things stand, Burnley – who came second in the Championship behind Leicester – are the odds-on favourites to go straight back down again, priced at best odds of 1/2 with Bet365 (who offer £200 free bets to new customers).
Ladbrokes (who – for a limited time – are offering a monster £100 matched free bet to new customers) offer best odds of 13/8 on second-favourite Crystal Palace.
Coral go 7/4 on QPR, but we think Harry will avoid the drop, though West Brom look a nice price at 7/4 with BetVictor to go down.Championship title winners Leicester are next in line at 7/2 with BetVictor, while last year’s FA Cup finalists Hull are out at 9/2 with Coral,who offer a nice £20 free bet when you join them and bet just a fiver.
With West Ham, Aston Villa (despite their fine start), Sunderland and Newcastle all hovering not too far behind in the odds, you might be tempted by one of that group at a decent price. The ever-inconsistent Newcastle, for instance, can be backed at best odds of 10/1 with Ladbrokes, which is well worth doing if you take advantage of the £100 free bet the bookie is currently offering new customers (for a limited time only).
How many points will be needed to avoid relegation in 2014-15?
Every year whilst the top clubs (and any others who can hang onto their coattails) concern themselves with titles, trophies, Europe and what brand of champagne to stock in the club lounges, for many the main focus is avoiding relegation. Even cup-half-full optimists at sides like Southampton must face the reality that a good season would be a 17th place finish in May. 40 points has generally been spoken of as the magic number required to stave off the living, breathing hell on Earth that is life outside the Premier League.
However in 2009/10 the bottom three clubs had 19 (Portsmouth suffered a points deduction), 30 and 30 points respectively: so just 31 would have been enough to ensure safety. Since 1998/99 (15 complete seasons) 36 points would have been enough on 7 occasions and 37 on five occasions (including last season). In 2010-2011 40 points was the required amount to stay safe, with Wolves pipping Blackpool and Birmingham who both won 39 points and still went down. However, past history shows us that in most seasons considerably fewer points than 40 are required. Despite this I expect the 40 point “myth” to live on and many managers in the upcoming season to focus on that target.
Having said that, on occasions even 40 isn’t enough, of course: 2002/03 was a freak year, with West Ham right to consider themselves unlucky to go down with 42 points. That year the two bottom clubs secured just 26 and 19 points (West Brom and Sunderland) and the title was won with a relatively low total. Furthermore there was a close concentration in mid-table with the points very evenly distributed. This season we think a very low points total could be enough to stay up because the top sides once again look like being stronger than ever.
Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Man United and Spurs will all garner high points total and this leaves the lesser sides fighting for scraps and so this season we fancy 36, but possibly just 35 points will be enough to stay in the Premier League and avoid relegation to the Championship. Be sure to check back though as we’ll be updating this entire article regularly throughout the season.
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